In this page we provide a simple ensemble analysis of the results provided by the participating teams at each round of the challenge. The main aim is to provide what picture of the 4 different scenarios emerges by combining the results of the point incidence in an aggregate view. Here we limited ourselves to a very simple analysis that just considers the mean prediction point and a cone defined the range of point estimates. We are not considering here the confidence interval provided by the teams for each prediction as well as other forecasts and information submitted along with the point estimates. The complete set of analysis will be released at the end of the challenge.
Ensemble forecast analysis for the 1st round of the challenge.*
*Seven independent Teams have submitted forecasts for the first round of the challenge
Ensemble forecast analysis for the 2nd round of the challenge.*
*Seven independent Teams have submitted forecasts for the second round of the challenge
Ensemble forecast analysis for the 3rd round of the challenge.*
*Seven independent Teams have submitted forecasts for the third round of the challenge